Crime Rates Fluctuating from Old Patterns

By Kevin Reynolds

JRN-100 Staff Writer

Criminal justice systems across the United States are reporting how criminal offense rates are not
returning to trends and patterns seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. Some cities saw spikes in
violent crimes during the height of the pandemic remain high, while crimes such as burglaries
continue to stay low.

The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) recently updated a study that shows how different
criminal offense rates were affected by the pandemic. Certain cities in the country experienced
sizable spikes and drops in specific categories of crime since the start of the pandemic in 2020.

The study done by the CCJ displays information about weekly crime rates from previous years in
various cities across the nation. In July of 2020, the CCJ formed the National Commission on
COVID-19 and Criminal Justice and tasked them with analyzing crime statistics across several
U.S. cities for a research study. Since the group’s conception in mid-2020, the commission has
released a study titled Pandemic, Social Unrest, and Crime in U.S. Cities. The commission has
re-released the study six times with updated information.

“We’ve been updating (the study) every few months. That information goes through
September.” said Ernesto Lopez, one of the authors of the study.

Lopez, a U.S. Army veteran and research specialist working with the CCJ, gave his own input
regarding the commission’s findings and updates in an interview last week. The study examined
weekly crime rates across twenty-seven cities, according to the report’s authors.

The other author, Professor Richard Rosenfeld, joined the CCJ and reported these findings
through the National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice. Rosenfeld is a career
criminologist and Founders Professor of Criminology from the University of Missouri - St.
Louis. Professor Rosenfeld worked closely with Ernesto Lopez to bring this study together.

According to the study from the CCJ, certain crime statistics spiked as a result of the COVID-19
pandemic; these include homicides, aggravated assault, gun assault, domestic violence, robbery,
motor vehicle thefts. The study shows a drop in weekly crime for robberies, residential
burglaries, non-residential burglaries, larcenies, and drug offenses from March of 2020 to
September of 2021.

Lopez said, “In order for there to be a crime there has to be a motivated offender, a suitable
target, and a lack of a capable guardian…When there is a decrease in activity, or people moving
around, that affects the offender’s targets. For crimes like residential burglary, more people are at
home, which is why you can see larger drops…it takes a big dip and stays down. Some offenses
are more sensitive to that effect.”

“The fact that people are more frequently advised to avoid public scenarios and are more likely
to be at home explains the drop in crimes involving theft.”, Lopez said. However, apart from
robberies, violent crimes used in the study each experienced a spike upwards in statistics during
the pandemic.

The study shows how violent crimes spiked dramatically in the early months of the pandemic.
Most nonviolent crimes have continued to gradually trend downwards, as seen from previous
years included in the study. The study specifies by explaining how criminal offenses were lower
for robbery, residential burglary, nonresidential burglary, larceny, and drug charges throughout
the first three quarters of this year compared to last year. Though robbery is labeled as a violent
crime, Lopez explains how families stuck at home during the height of the pandemic was a factor
to the gradual decline of nonviolent crimes.

Lopez said, “If you look at something like aggravated assault or homicide, these could be
situations that you are more likely to have contact with someone anyway. You are more likely to
get into an argument with (someone) and punch them in the face or stab them than you are to
burglarize their home. Some crimes are not as sensitive to this affect.”

Within at least one month included in the study, average weekly crime rates for violent crime
offenses exceeded a peak previously set from the highest crime rates reported since 2018. This
means that violent crimes occurred more often in various cities at one point compared to years
before the COVID-19 pandemic. However, criminals are not the only people changing their
habits.

“The pandemic not only affects the behavior of criminals, but also the duties of police officers
catching criminals”, said Chief Lucas Miller of the Salem, Massachusetts police department.

After more than thirty years of service for the NYPD, Miller became
Chief of Police in Salem
last May. Since being sworn in, Miller has noticed crime trends resulting from the pandemic.

Miller said how it has been strange for officers to adjust to the pandemic, explaining that patrol
units need to stay vigilant in search of violent crimes, which occur more often now from the
pandemic, than nonviolent criminal offenses, which occur less often now as a result of the
pandemic.

Miller said, “Obviously, people were home during the pandemic. The likelihood of robbery is
less, the likelihood of domestic assault is higher. Those are some things the department has to
keep in mind.”

Miller also said, “There is a lot more on our plates now that we are further into the pandemic.
COVID isn’t entirely over, but the restrictions have been significantly lightened. There has been
a drop in almost all major crime categories from 2020 to this year.”

Chief Miller said that police have always had seasonal and holiday shifts in crime to deal with,
but now they have an added layer of pandemic restrictions and precautions that create additional
considerations. Salem has always been known for its Halloween enthusiasm, even beyond the
fall season.

“Last year, events like Halloween were cancelled, and people stayed home on weekends.
Because the COVID restrictions were loosened, the crowds around Halloween this year alone
were about 20% greater than the last five years. Scenarios like that keep us busy at the
department. We are working hard to keep people safe,” he said.

Massachusetts State Police Responding to a call in Salem, MA